NY-20: Murphy Leads Final Poll By 4

Siena College (PDF) (3/25-26, likely voters, 3/9-10 in parentheses):

Scott Murphy (D): 47 (41)

Jim Tedisco (R): 43 (45)

Eric Sundwall (L): 2 (1)

(MoE: 3.2%)

If I had a Drudge siren, I’d be breaking it out right now. There’s been blogosphere whispers for the last few days of various leaked polls showing Murphy within a point or two or even up by a point, but nothing quite of this magnitude: Scott Murphy has turned a four-point deficit from two weeks ago into a four-point lead in a public poll. Before we start dancing in the end zone, though, we have to remember that this is a low-turnout special election, and whatever happens is going to be decided by GOTV and ground game. Even if we’re peaking at the right time, the key is going to be actually getting those Murphy voters to the polls.

The GOP registration edge in the district isn’t helping Tedisco much. Part of the problem is that Murphy has the support of 84% of the Democrats, while Tedisco has the support of only 64% of the Republicans. The poll also has crosstabs of the regions within the district: while Murphy is remaining steady in the region he’s from (Essex/Warren/Washington Counties), he’s gained 8% since last poll in Rensselaer/Saratoga Counties (to 43%) and 7% in the Hudson Valley (to 46%). Combined with his 58% in the north, that’s enough to put him over the top.

There’s still one wrinkle in this poll: it includes Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall, who got kicked off the ballot yesterday for not having enough valid petition signatures. While I’d expect more of Sundwall’s votes to migrate to Tedisco than Murphy, some of his would-be voters may simply stay home, and at any rate, Sundwall’s share in this poll is still smaller than the Murphy/Tedisco margin.

UPDATE by James L.: A new DCCC poll has Murphy leading Tedisco by a 43-41 margin. No details are available yet on its sample size or the name of the outfit that conducted the poll.

32 thoughts on “NY-20: Murphy Leads Final Poll By 4”

  4. 2% of Dems and 2% of republicans said they’d vote for Sundwall.  Net effect of his being removed from the ballot according to this poll is almost zero.

  5. I still see Tedisco winning in a walk.  We haven’t been able to mobilize our troops in any special election since Nov 4th, And I doubt this will be any different.  I still Tedisco winning by 10ish.

  7. Haha

    http://www.thealbanyproject.co…

    March 27, 2009

    The decision of the Board of Election to remove my name from the ballot proves once again that the political system in New York is rigged by professionals to make sure that average citizens are excluded from the process. While the two major parties could choose their candidates in a smoke-filled room, they made us go out and attempt the impossible: obtain 3500 valid signatures in just 12 days. We came very close but ultimately, the technicalities they built into the law to disenfranchise the people proved too strong to overcome.

    In addition, I faced baseless allegations of wrongdoing and threats of criminal prosecution in a lawsuit brought by Tedisco supporters. While I wanted to file a lawsuit in Albany County to overturn the Board’s decision, we got stuck down in Dutchess County where the machine felt they would have a friendly bench. While the court there should have dismissed that lawsuit as moot, the judge instead was prepared to keep us down there litigating silly issues concerning the Libertarian Party emblem and whether witnessing signatures from outside the district constitutes fraud. There was no end in sight and we might have been down there for days facing the inevitable loss with no time to appeal and no time to campaign either. The Tedisco supporters who brought the case sought and received an order requiring me to be present in Court, thereby preventing me from campaigning.

    I was also concerned that continued litigation would jeopardize the ballots of military personnel and disabled voters who use special machines that need to be programmed several days before the election.

    Faced with the prospect of spending much of the rest of campaign on the witness stand being harassed by the machine’s hired gun, I chose not to play that game. Since I could not file suit in the county of my choosing, I decided to end my candidacy and not subject myself and my family to any further abuse, threats or harassment from the political machine.

    Thus, the Stalinist New York Election Law forced us to spend the first half of the campaign getting signatures and the second half fighting a lost cause in court.

    The voters will be deprived of any choice but the two parties that have destroyed the nation’s economy in recent years and have us bogged down in two land wars in Asia.

    Mr. Tedisco denies any involvement with the concerted effort by his supporters to knock me off the ballot. I don’t believe him. The ruthless effort by his supporters to knock me off the ballot without a word of protest by him proves his unfitness for any office let alone Congress in these critical times.

    I will be voting for Scott Murphy on Tuesday. While we disagree on some important issues, I find him to be a man of honor, a good family man and successful businessman. Unlike Tedisco, he actually lives in the District. And, unlike Mr. Tedisco, I view Scott’s business success as a virtue, not a vice.

    I urge my supporters and all those who believe in open and free elections to show their disgust at the tactics of the Republican political machine to win at all costs. Please join me in voting for Scott Murphy on Tuesday.

    I want to thank all those who worked tirelessly on my behalf and who donated their precious funds to help this effort. And I wish to thank the media for all their courtesies during this Sysiphean struggle.

    We live to fight another day.

    Eric Sundwall

  8. Glad to hear the booted lib is endorsing Scott.

    Where’s that guy (andy?) that comes here and posts links to Tedisco’s website claiming he’s the best guy for the job and never sticks around to explain why?

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